Paddy Power are predicting Wednesday’s Budget
PaddyPower.com are predicting Wednesday’s Budget could do Labour a favour in the opinion polls with Chancellor Alistair Darling suggesting a prudent budget could be on the cards rather than a pre-election giveaway.
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Darren Haines, spokesman for Paddy Power, said: “Signals coming out of Number 11 suggests the penny may have finally dropped with Labour and the public are not longer going to be fooled by the tricks of pre-election giveaways that they have employed in the past. If that’s the case then Labour may come out of this year’s budget with their Election chances actually enhanced.”
With Labour currently at 31% in the opinion polls (source: YouGov) the bookie believes a one point rise could be on the cards at 9/4 although a big climb of four points or more is less likely at 18/1. Whilst it’s 5/2 for no change Paddy Power also offers 3/1 that Brown and Darling fail to impress voters and Labour ends up falling by one point with a disastrous four point fall or more at 14/1.
There was also good news on the UK’s forecast borrowing for the year which many experts are suggesting could now fall below the anticipated £178billion. Paddy Power are offering 5/6 the UK comes in under that huge number.
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BUDGET BETTING
Labour’s post budget poll rating (YouGov: Lab currently 31%)
18/1 Up four points or more
14/1 Up three points
9/2 Up two points
9/4 Up one point
5/2 No change
3/1 Down one point
5/1 Down two points
10/1 Down three points
14/1 Down four points or more
5/6 UK government’s full year borrowing to be below ₤178 billion
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Speech Stakes
With the government still yet to confirm the election date Paddy Power offers 4/1 that Alistair Darling confirms the date, whether it’s the expected May 6th or otherwise, during his speech with the Chancellor 11/8 to avoid mentioning the elephant in the room by not saying the word ‘election’ at any time during his speech.
Paddy Power are also betting how many times Darling says the word ‘deficit’ in his speech, making four to six times the most likely at 6/4. Darling is 5/1 to still be in the job to present the next Budget to The House although Shadow Chancellor George Osborne is the 1/5 favourite to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer.
4/1 Alastair Darling to announce the election date in the Budget speech
5/1 Alastair Darling to be Chancellor at the next Budget
How many times will Darling say the word ‘deficit’ in his speech?
9/2 Three or less
6/4 Four to Six
7/4 Six to Nine
11/4 Ten or more
How many times will Darling say the word ‘election’ in his speech?
11/8 None
9/4 One
3/1 Two
5/1 Three
8/1 Four or more
Length of Speech
10/11 50 minutes or less
6/4 51 to 55 minutes inclusively
4/1 56 minutes or more
What will happen to tax on tobacco?
1/3 Increased
2/1 Unchanged
10/1 Reduced
What will happen to tax on Alcohol?
4/6 Increased
11/8 Unchanged
5/1 Reduced
Chancellor Clichés – what phrase will Darling say first?
9/4 Stability
4/1 Economic Growth/Economy
5/1 Uncertainty
6/1 Commitment
6/1 Financial Crisis
8/1 Prosperous/Prosperity
8/1 Recession
10/1 Infrastructure
10/1 Down Turn
12/1 Election
14/1 Priority/Priorities
14/1 Safe
18/1 Prudent
20/1 Green shoots
20/1 Climate Change
40/1 Drive Forward
80/1 Anti Social Behaviour
500/1 Paddy Power
Colour of Alistair Darlings’ Tie
9/4 Red
5/2 Purple/Pink
4/1 Blue
6/1 Yellow/Gold
8/1 Green
10/1 Grey/Silver
10/1 Orange/Peach
12/1 Brown
14/1 Black
40/1 White
80/1 Open Collar/No Tie
100/1 Cravate
250/1 Bow Tie
Water Sips
6/4 None
9/4 One
4/1 Two
6/1 Three
4/1 More than Three
POLITICS LATEST
General Election
1/7 Conservatives
4/1 Labour
150/1 Lib Dems
Next Chancellor of the Exchequer
1/5 Osborne
8/1 Cable
10/1 Hammond
12/1 Balls
20/1 E Miliband
20/1 K Clarke
25/1 D Miliband
40/1 Bar
Paddy Power are currently offering over 600 markets on their Election website www.electionbetting.com
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